BEIJING (AP) — China trade data showed a surprising rebound in September as exports rose at the fastest pace in six months and imports climbed to their strongest level since April 2024, defying expectations of a prolonged slowdown amid rising trade tensions with the United States.
Exports increased 8.3% from a year earlier in US dollar terms, while imports jumped 7.4%, according to customs figures released Monday. Both numbers beat analysts’ forecasts and signal renewed resilience in the world’s second largest economy.
The upbeat China trade data comes as friction with Washington intensifies. US President Donald Trump has threatened an additional 100% levy on Chinese goods and stricter export controls on critical software.
Beijing has countered with new limits on rare earth exports and widened its “unreliable entities” list to include foreign firms such as chip consultancy TechInsights.
Exports to the United States fell 27% in September, while imports from America dropped 16%. China’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to $208.6 billion in the first nine months of 2025, down from $258 billion a year earlier.
However, shipments to other regions offset the decline. Exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations rose 15.6%, to the European Union by 10.4%, and to Africa by 56.4%, reflecting Beijing’s growing trade diversification strategy.
Analysts said the latest China trade data suggests that external demand remains stronger than expected, though rising geopolitical risks could cloud the outlook.
“The numbers show that Chinese exporters are adapting quickly to a shifting global landscape,” said Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, a political risk consultancy. “But the risk of a renewed trade war remains high if both sides impose new tariffs.”
An additional 100% tariff on top of the current 55% average duty could amount to a “near embargo,” Wildau said, warning that bilateral trade could “slow to a trickle.”
Customs spokesperson Lyu Daliang urged Washington to “return to dialogue and negotiation,” warning that tariff escalation “harms businesses on both sides and destabilizes global supply chains.”
China’s overall trade surplus stood at $90.5 billion in September, up from $81.7 billion a year ago. Imports of soybeans rose 13% from a year earlier, though official data did not specify sources.
Rare earth exports fell 30% from August to 4,000 tons, following Beijing’s decision to add five new elements to its export control list.
The US and China are also preparing to levy new docking fees on each other’s ships beginning October 14, with both setting rates at roughly $56 per ton.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies reports that China produces more than half of the world’s ships, while the US accounts for just 0.1%. In Shanghai’s busy export hub, workers said the rebound has brought a brief sense of relief.
“Orders from Southeast Asia and Europe have picked up again, which helps keep us busy,” said Chen Rui, a logistics manager at an electronics manufacturer. “Still, everyone’s watching what happens next between Beijing and Washington.”
At the Ningbo port, dock worker Wang Zhiqiang described higher activity in recent weeks. “We haven’t seen this much container traffic since early this year,” he said. “But people are worried it could slow down if new tariffs kick in.”
Farmers in northeastern Heilongjiang province, one of China’s soybean heartlands, voiced similar concerns. “Global prices and policies affect us directly,” said Zhang Hui, a cooperative manager. “We just hope things stabilize soon.”
Customs Vice Minister Wang Jun said stabilizing trade in the final quarter would be “challenging” due to global uncertainties and last year’s high base. Economists expect China to continue expanding partnerships with non Western markets to offset US pressure.
“China will likely deepen trade ties across Asia, Africa and Latin America,” said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank. “The next phase of trade growth could come from regions outside the traditional Western bloc.”
A potential meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this month could offer a chance to ease tensions. Allan von Mehren, China economist at Danske Bank, estimated “better than even odds” that the two leaders could agree on limited de-escalation measures.
The latest China trade data paints a picture of cautious optimism. Stronger exports and a rebound in imports point to underlying resilience, even as political uncertainty clouds the horizon.
With tariffs, port fees and export controls looming, both Beijing and Washington face a delicate test of whether economic pragmatism can prevail over confrontation.