Consumer confidence fell sharply in November, reaching its weakest point since April as Americans grew more anxious about job security and the broader economic outlook.
The latest reading from the Conference Board showed widespread unease across income groups, with declining expectations for business conditions, employment prospects and household income.
The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88.7 in November, down 6.8 points from the previous month and well below economist projections of 93.2.
The decline came amid renewed concerns over the labor market and persistent anxieties about prices, tariffs and political instability.
The expectations index, which captures views on the economy six months ahead, fell sharply to 63.2. The present situation index, which evaluates current business and labor conditions, slipped to 126.9.
Together, the components suggest households are becoming more cautious despite recent stock market gains and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said the latest results reflect mounting tensions across economic and political lines.
“Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now,” Peterson said.
“Expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically.”
Economists said the downturn in consumer confidence highlights a complex economic landscape shaped by mixed data signals.
While inflation has eased from last year’s peak, higher prices for essentials like food, utilities and medical care continue to strain middle income households.
Dr. Caroline Mercer, a senior economist at Horizon Analytics, said the fall in sentiment shows how vulnerable people feel even in a job market that appears resilient on paper.
“Job openings remain relatively high, but the hiring pace has slowed dramatically,” Mercer said. “People sense that companies are cautious, and that cautiousness translates directly into lower confidence.”
A separate report Tuesday from payroll firm ADP found that private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs over the past four weeks, reinforcing the perception of a cooling labor market.
Federal Reserve officials have recently suggested additional rate cuts may be warranted in December if economic data continues to soften.
Lower borrowing costs could relieve pressure on businesses and households, though officials warn inflation expectations remain elevated.
“The Fed is walking a tightrope,” said Robert Kane, a former regional Fed adviser. “They want to support growth, but long term inflation expectations creeping higher is something they pay close attention to. Declining consumer confidence only complicates the picture.
A deeper look inside the report shows notable shifts in how Americans perceive job availability. Only six percent of respondents said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 28.6 percent in October.
Meanwhile, those saying jobs were “hard to get” edged lower to 17.9 percent, reflecting what Peterson described as a “no hire, no fire” climate where employers are reluctant to expand but equally hesitant to lay off workers.
Other surveys confirm the downward trend. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell 4.9 percent in November and is down twenty nine percent from a year earlier. Analysts attribute much of the decline to rising concerns about future inflation and political gridlock.
The government’s own data releases have faced delays due to a now ended federal shutdown, leaving economists with fewer reliable indicators. Agencies have slowly resumed publishing updates, though many of the numbers are weeks behind schedule.
Inflation expectations rose in the latest Conference Board survey, with households projecting a 4.8 percent rate one year from now. That figure sits well above the Federal Reserve’s two percent target and exceeds the Michigan survey’s outlook of 4.5 percent.
Despite the anxiety, respondents expressed optimism about financial markets, with “strongly positive” expectations for stocks over the next year.
In cities across the country, individuals expressed mixed experiences that echo what the consumer confidence data shows.
Maria López, a retail supervisor in Dallas, said her hours were reduced in recent weeks as store traffic softened.
“We usually get busy ahead of the holidays, but this year feels slower,” López said. “People are coming in, but they spend less, and everyone is talking about higher prices.”
In Detroit, software technician Brian Matthews said coworkers worry about delayed hiring and postponed raises. “Our company hasn’t mentioned layoffs, but no one is really being promoted either,” he said.
“The uncertainty makes you rethink big purchases.” Small business owners also reported signs of caution among customers. Jessica Hsu, who runs a bakery in Seattle, said spending patterns are shifting.
People still buy coffee and pastries, but they don’t order the large specialty items as often, Hsu said. “It’s subtle, but you can feel the change.”
Financial counselors say more clients seek advice on budgeting and emergency savings. “Households are stretching every dollar,” said Malik Anderson, a financial adviser in Atlanta. “They feel like the economic ground isn’t as stable as it was a year ago, and that affects confidence.”
Analysts expect consumer confidence to remain under pressure through early next year as uncertainty around inflation, interest rates and government policy continues.
Some economists believe sentiment could rebound if the Federal Reserve follows through on rate cuts and if hiring stabilizes.
However, others warn that persistent concerns about job security may weigh on consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two thirds of US economic activity.
“Even a slight pullback in spending can ripple across sectors,” Mercer said. Political tensions ahead of the next election cycle, combined with renewed debates over tariffs and spending bills, may further influence household sentiment.
The November drop in consumer confidence underscores the fragile state of household sentiment in an economy facing mixed signals.
While inflation has cooled and financial markets remain strong, anxiety over job stability and long term conditions continues to rise.
With the labor market showing signs of cooling and inflation expectations ticking upward, policymakers and businesses will be watching future surveys closely for clues about the path ahead.
