Brent crude oil futures held steady on Friday as drawn out Russia Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated, while traders monitored the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for potential signals on global supply.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, however, were disrupted by a system outage at CME Group, halting trading on the exchange for several hours.
Front month Brent crude for January, which expires on Friday, was down 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $63.20 a barrel by 1148 GMT. The February contract changed hands at $62.80, down 7 cents.
WTI futures froze at $59.08 a barrel, up 43 cents, or 0.73 percent, following the CME outage linked to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers that affected all futures and options trading on Globex, exchange officials said.
Both Brent and WTI contracts are on track for a fourth straight monthly decline, marking their longest losing streak since 2023, amid expectations of higher global supply. Despite weekly gains exceeding one percent, overall market sentiment remains cautious, analysts said.
“Refinery margins outside of the typical peak season are keeping crude demand strong in some regions, but the looming oil surplus is pressuring prices,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.
A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts projected Brent to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from a prior forecast of $63.15 in October. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far this year, according to LSEG data.
Early week optimism over a potential Russia Ukraine peace deal had pushed oil prices lower, but as negotiations dragged on, prices recovered over the past three sessions.
The market is caught between there being no immediate sanctions relief for Russia, but as slow as negotiations are, there is hope for a future settlement, said John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
Current Brent prices are slightly below expectations as global supply remains ample. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is expected to reduce its January crude price for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, reaching its lowest level in five years, sources told Reuters.
In comparison, WTI prices are influenced not only by global market conditions but also by domestic factors including refinery throughput and storage levels.
The CME outage highlighted the market’s vulnerability to technical disruptions, temporarily freezing billions of dollars in futures trading.
Oil traders in Houston and London reported mixed reactions to the CME outage. “It was unusual to see WTI frozen in real-time trading. Traders had to pause positions and reassess risk exposure,” said Robert Kline, a senior trader at a US commodity firm.
Meanwhile, Asian refiners continue to monitor Saudi pricing adjustments closely. “Lower January prices from Saudi Arabia will influence our import decisions, especially with the surplus outlook,” said Li Wei, a procurement manager at a Chinese refinery.
OPEC+ is expected to leave output levels unchanged at Sunday’s meeting, while agreeing on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, according to two delegates and a source familiar with the talks.
Market watchers said the decision will be crucial for stabilizing global oil prices in the near term. “Even if OPEC+ maintains current output, geopolitical risks and potential shifts in demand will continue to create price volatility,” said Shah.
Analysts also noted that seasonal refinery demand and evolving US storage data could influence the trajectory of both Brent and WTI prices heading into 2026.
Brent crude remained steady amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of ample supply, while WTI futures were disrupted by technical outages.
Analysts emphasized that both benchmarks face continued pressure from a potential global oil surplus, despite intermittent weekly gains.
As OPEC+ prepares to meet and geopolitical negotiations continue, market participants will be closely monitoring developments for signals on future price direction.
