SUMMARY
- Re-entry of Van Allen Probe A expected around 7:45 PM EDT March 10, with about one day uncertainty.
- US Space Force estimates a roughly one in 4,200 chance of injury from surviving debris.
- Increased drag from solar maximum hastened orbital decay beyond original projections.
A large NASA satellite is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere Wednesday evening, raising rare but low risk of debris reaching the ground after more than a decade in orbit, according to US Space Force and NASA officials.
The Van Allen Probe A, part of a mission to study charged particles around Earth, is forecast to plunge back to Earth at about 7:45 PM Eastern time, though timing could shift by about 24 hours, the Space Force said.
The NASA satellite crash draws attention to an uncommon but increasingly notable aspect of space operations: the uncontrolled re-entry of defunct spacecraft.
Van Allen Probe A’s descent underscores how space weather and atmospheric forces influence the longevity of satellites after missions end.
Launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Aug. 30, 2012, Van Allen Probe A was one of two identical spacecraft designed to study the Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts, regions of high‑energy particles trapped by the planet’s magnetic field.
The probes, built by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory for NASA, exceeded their planned two‑year mission and operated until 2019, when both ran out of fuel and lost the ability to orient solar panels toward the sun.
Scientists initially expected the satellites to remain in orbit until the mid‑2030s. However, increased atmospheric drag tied to the peak of the sun’s 11‑year activity cycle, known as solar maximum, sped the decay of Probe A’s orbit, officials said.
“The descent of Van Allen Probe A is a reminder that space environment conditions directly affect orbital behavior,” said Nicola Fox, Associate Administrator for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, in a statement.
“Space weather factors like solar output push spacecraft back toward Earth sooner than models sometimes predict.”
Col. Jason Sanders, director of the Combined Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Space Force Base, said the chances any piece of debris injures someone or damages property are extremely small.
“We continue to track the re‑entry and will refine timing as needed,” Sanders said. Fox highlighted the value of the mission’s science return.
“The data transformed our understanding of radiation belt dynamics,” she said. Sanders reiterated the tracking effort as re‑entry approaches.
The twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, remains in orbit and is not expected to re‑enter until later this decade, the Space Force reported.
NASA and Space Force will update re‑entry timing as additional tracking data become available.
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