SUMMARY
- “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” projected to split five awards each, according to critic Richard Roeper.
- Nine additional films or performances remain contenders for single category wins, keeping major races fluid.
- New Academy category for best achievement in casting marks the first expansion since 2001.
LOS ANGELES — The Oscars 2026 entered its final countdown Saturday as longtime film critic Richard Roeper outlined likely winners across major categories, highlighting a closely contested race between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.”
With ballots already submitted, Roeper said the ceremony promises unpredictability and high competition in both acting and technical awards.
As the 98th Academy Awards approach, industry observers are focusing on which films and performances may secure Oscars amid a season of closely tracked guild awards.
The final voting, which closed Thursday at 8 PM ET, locks in outcomes, but late shifts in momentum from the Producers Guild and Actor Awards are considered influential, particularly for acting categories.
This year, “Sinners” received 16 nominations, surpassing previous record-holders including “Titanic” and “La La Land,” and illustrating the Academy’s broad recognition of the film’s scope.
The Oscars also introduced a best achievement in casting category, the first new addition since best animated feature debuted in 2001, reflecting evolving industry priorities.
Roeper, a film critic for the Chicago Sun-Times, said both “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” are expected to dominate, with technical awards projected for “Frankenstein” and animated and music honors likely for “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Industry analyst Jennifer Merin, professor of film studies at San Diego State University, noted that record setting nominations can influence voter perception “High nomination counts often signal broad industry support, which can translate into final wins in competitive races.”
Amy Madigan, nominated for supporting actress, reflected on her Chicago roots: “It’s an honor to represent my hometown on this stage,” referencing her upbringing in South Shore and schooling at Aquinas High School.
John Madigan, her father and longtime Chicago journalist, praised her performance in “Uncle Buck” as “comedic gold” alongside John Candy.
With the Academy’s 10,000 voters having completed ballots, late campaigning and guild award momentum will likely shape ceremony narratives but not outcomes.
Analysts expect the mix of record nominations and new categories to influence Oscar viewership trends globally.
Oscars 2026 underscores both the competitive nature of contemporary filmmaking and the Academy’s evolving recognition of industry craft.
With several major categories still contested, the ceremony is positioned as one of the most unpredictable in recent years.
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